{"id":29317,"date":"2022-12-03T17:34:08","date_gmt":"2022-12-03T16:34:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/english.cpnn-world.org\/?p=29317"},"modified":"2022-12-03T17:34:08","modified_gmt":"2022-12-03T16:34:08","slug":"make-peace-not-war-the-kremlins-internal-polling-shows-that-more-than-half-of-russians-now-favor-negotiations-with-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/english.cpnn-world.org\/?p=29317","title":{"rendered":"Make peace, not war\u00a0The Kremlin\u2019s internal polling shows that more than half of Russians now favor negotiations with Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

DISARMAMENT & SECURITY .<\/p>\n

An article by\u00a0Andrey Pertsev in Meduza<\/a> (Translation by\u00a0Anna Razumnaya)<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s ongoing military defeats in Ukraine and the social burden of mobilization are rapidly cooling the public\u2019s support for the war. Meduza has gained access to the results of an opinion poll commissioned by the Kremlin \u201cfor internal use only.\u201d According to the study conducted by the Federal Protective Service (FSO), 55 percent of Russians favor peace talks with Ukraine, while only a quarter of the respondents still support continuing the war.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
\nInternal polling data commissioned by the Kremlin <\/center><\/p>\n

The FSO poll does not diverge all that much from the results of an October public-opinion study conducted by the Levada Center, Russia\u2019s only large independent sociological institute. In the Levada study, 57 percent of respondents said that they supported, or would probably support, peace talks with Ukraine. Only 27 percent expressed the same range of support for continuing the war.<\/p>\n

The FSO\u2019s own polling indicates that Russians\u2019 attitudes about the war have changed. As late as July 2022, only 30 percent of survey respondents favored ending the war by peace negotiations. Comparing the new results to those collected in the summer make the shift obvious:<\/p>\n

Two sources close to the Putin administration told Meduza that the Kremlin now plans to limit the polling data that VTsIOM (the Russian Public Opinion Research Center) releases to the public. One source said, \u201cYou can get all kinds of results these days \u2014 better not to do it at all.\u201d Also speaking to Meduza, a political consultant who works frequently with the Kremlin explained that it\u2019s \u201cbest not to reveal the dynamics\u201d of the Russians\u2019 changing attitudes towards the war.<\/p>\n

Denis Volkov, the director of the Levada Center, says the share of Russians likely to support peace talks with Ukraine began to grow rapidly following Putin\u2019s September 21 mobilization decree:<\/p>\n

(Continued in right column)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Questions related to this article:<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
\n 
\n Can the peace movement help stop the war in the Ukraine?<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

(Continued from left column)<\/p>\n

This is sheer reluctance to take part in the war personally. They continue to support it, but they have very little desire to participate themselves. Besides, their support was, from the very start, something they declared with regard to what they perceived as having nothing to do with themselves: \u201cLife goes on \u2014 it\u2019s even getting better.\u201d Now, the risks are greater, and people want to start the talks. Still, the majority of people leave this to the government: \u201cWe\u2019d like it, but it\u2019s up to them to decide.\u201d<\/p>\n

Sociologist Grigory Yudin also links rising public support for peace talks to Russia\u2019s draft. This fall, he says, Russians came face-to-face with the \u201ccrumbling of their everyday lives and a sense of danger.\u201d Their \u201closs of faith in the victory\u201d and the \u201cabsence of a convincing account of how exactly Russia might win\u201d also contribute to the shift in opinions, says Yudin. \u201cI wouldn\u2019t be surprised,\u201d Yudin added,<\/p>\n

if this turned out to be mixed with an acute sense of danger to the country itself. In this sense, peace talks followed by legalizing the annexations should make the country safer.<\/p>\n

Yudin says the public\u2019s resentment for how the war is going is not far from outright \u201capathy.\u201d Still, he doesn\u2019t rule out the possibility of anti-war demonstrations in Russia:<\/p>\n

Protests do not occur simply because people think something but because something makes protest possible. Russia\u2019s protest potential is very high. When possibilities present themselves, there will be protests. Quite possibly, we won\u2019t have to wait that long.<\/p>\n

Kremlin insiders who spoke to Meduza, however, said there\u2019s little concern in the administration about potential mass protests, though they acknowledged that \u201cit\u2019s best not to raise the temperature, and not to anger people if not necessary.\u201d Russia\u2019s state media and propaganda outlets, moreover, have already received instructions \u201cnot to dwell on the war.\u201d According to Meduza\u2019s sources, the mass media is now being told to focus instead on a \u201cmore positive agenda.\u201d<\/p>\n

Political scientist Vladimir Gelman says the dynamics of Russian public opinion are unlikely to pressure the Putin administration into honest negotiations with Ukraine. The Russian side, he argues, is \u201cnot ready to make concessions,\u201d and the prospects of any peace talks depend largely on what happens in combat \u2014 not in opinion polls.<\/p>\n

Last October, Meduza wrote about Vladimir Putin\u2019s unwillingness to abandon his claim on the Ukrainian regions he\u2019s now annexed outright. The Kremlin\u2019s recent hints at possible peace talks are likely a scheme to buy time to prepare a new offensive. Meduza\u2019s sources close to the administration say the president still clings to his plans in Ukraine, and officials will reportedly resume Russia\u2019s \u201cpartial\u201d mobilization in the winter. Just how many more men the Kremlin hopes to draft remains unclear.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

DISARMAMENT & SECURITY . An article by\u00a0Andrey Pertsev in Meduza (Translation by\u00a0Anna Razumnaya) Russia\u2019s ongoing military defeats in Ukraine and the social burden of mobilization are rapidly cooling the public\u2019s support for the war. Meduza has gained access to the results of an opinion poll commissioned by the Kremlin \u201cfor internal use only.\u201d According to … Continue reading Make peace, not war\u00a0The Kremlin\u2019s internal polling shows that more than half of Russians now favor negotiations with Ukraine<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16,75],"tags":[33],"class_list":["post-29317","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-disarmament","category-europe","tag-europe"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/english.cpnn-world.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29317","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/english.cpnn-world.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/english.cpnn-world.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/english.cpnn-world.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/english.cpnn-world.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=29317"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/english.cpnn-world.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29317\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/english.cpnn-world.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=29317"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/english.cpnn-world.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=29317"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/english.cpnn-world.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=29317"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}